Tournament simulator
Who actually wins, over ten thousand brackets
Every match is played rack by rack using the same probabilities the rest of the site quotes, then the whole bracket is replayed ten thousand times. The result is not a prediction of one tournament — it is what would happen if this field played the same event ten thousand times over.
Seeded 1 v 16, 2 v 15 and so on, like a real draw.
Why the favourite's number is so low
A player who wins 60% of racks against everyone in the field still has to win five straight matches to take a 32-man event. Even at 70% per match that is 0.75, or about one time in six.
This is not the model being uncertain. It is pool being pool: the gap between the best player in the world and the fiftieth is real but small per rack, and a knockout format multiplies small edges into coin flips. It is why upsets in this sport are normal rather than remarkable, and why the same handful of names do not win everything.
Longer races favour the better player. Run the same field at a race to 5 and then at 13 to see how much.